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Testing, testing, testing … Maybe I can blog more often when inspiration strikes if I’m mobile. It will mean short notes like this, incomplete thoughts, bad grammar and spelling, and dodgy mobile camera pics. So I searched the AppStore and found this WordPress app. I’m sure it’s ancient already. But it’s news to me … … 1, 2, 3  Missed a couple of brilliant setups over the past few days, and then got sucked into (demo) trading a poor one; or at least one in which I didn’t have much confidence; Tuesday’s candle on the cable (GBPUSD). Stuffed about with entry. Stuffed about with trade management. And when all is said and done I failed to trust my instincts.  Poor set-up & entry. 1) Price action. Daily Pin-ish, BUOB-ish candle. -ish is not good enough. 2) Trend. With daily and monthly bullish trend lines. 3) Confluence. Off a 38.2 Fib, the monthly pivot, and the 365 EMA. 4) Trouble areas. First trouble/target area (FTA) was the high of the earlier swing high and the weekly R1 pivot. 5) Entry. Originally planned long entry around an appropriate ret of the -ish candle. Position size based on a stop just below the tail and 2% risk. When I noticed that my retrace entry price was missed by a point and then I suspected price would take off, I entered the same position size at market and moved the stop the appropriate distance. Stupid. Continue reading “Bailed Out for Break-Even on Dodgy PA Setup” The Tuesday (21 August 2012) bullish pinbar on the daily loonie (USDCAD) chart gave me another modest win yesterday, the fourth in a row since my return to this experiment.  Loonie pin. Full chart below. 1) Price action. Pinbar at a likely swing low area. 2) Trend. Against daily and monthly bearish trends, yet the pin suggested price might retest the bullish weekly trendline, which price had broken through on 8 August. 3) Confluence. The pin’s tail tested and rejected monthly (S2) and weekly (S1) support lines. 4) Trouble areas. First trouble areas I identified was the weekly pivot right at the top of the pin, which if not broken would anyway invalidate the pin, and the weekly resistance (R1) some 30-odd pips above the pin and just below monthly support (S1). 5) Entry. Planned entry on the daily chart (see thumbnail image at right). Placed a buy stop order five pips above the pin (and above that weekly pivot line) and placed initial stop loss one pip below the pin (and below those two support levels). Position size based on stop loss and 2% risk. Continue reading “Tiny Win on Loonie Pin” Last week’s (ending 10 Aug 2012) bearish outside bar (BEOB or bearish engulfing candle) gave me another demo win; my third in a row since returning to this experiment.  Daily view of last week's EURCAD BEOB 1) Price action. Noted last week’s BEOB on Monday. 2) Trend. BEOB was located at extreme low of a long downward trend and clearly suggested a continuation of the trend. 3) Confluence. The BEOB had broken through and closed below previous lows, which was enough for me at the time. I have since added pivots to my charts, which show (in hindsight on the daily) that price had also dropped below a weekly resistance line and through the weekly pivot during the week. 4) Trouble areas. Due to price being at extreme lows there is nothing I knew of to determine trouble areas (apart from experience perhaps, which I don’t possess). This was one reason I added pivot lines to my charts to indicate possible support levels in uncharted territory. 5) Entry. Planned entry on the daily chart (see thumbnail image at right). The 38.2 Fib retrace of the BEOB coincided with a string of daily lows from the previous week so I determined that to be the perfect place to enter. I placed initial stop loss well above the 61.8 Fib retrace and daily trend line, which happily coincided for extra resistance. Position size based on stop loss and 2% risk. Continue reading “Weekly Outside Bar Bears EURCAD Pips” Not ideally set up for a runner due to a strong support level and bullish daily trend line immediately below the area, but to me this was a reasonably high probability chance to claim a few (demo) pips and even up my win-loss ratio, which now stands at 7-7:  Marginal pin on USDCHF at entry 1) Bearish daily pinbar on a minor swing high of USDCHF, which bounced off a 61.8 Fib retrace and a bearish daily trend line 2) Short off the break of the low of the pinbar 3) Initial stop five pips above the tail of the pinbar 4) Position size based on 2% risk and 75-pip initial stop (perhaps should have been 1% risk due to the tightness of the set-up) 5) Just closed the trade for a 20-pip profit when a retrace became evident on the 4-hour (considered simply moving stops to break-even but figured due to the tightness of the set-up that they would more than likely be taken out and I would have lost a 20-pip gain) At writing I have a couple of other demo trades pending and in process. Slowly making my way through the James16 thread at Forex Factory; highly recommended for bright green newbies like me! I’m back. After losing interest in this little experiment for nearly two years, I’m back.  Bearish outside bar (BEOB) on USDCHF It has been an interesting two years, full of personal and professional upheaval, change, and evolution. Yet the prospect of earning an income by learning a simple forex method and mastering my complex emotions has once again tossed a lure in my direction. And I’m back with a (modest) virtual win based on simple price action and a conservative approach to minimising loss. Earlier today (3 August 2012) I opened up a new demo account and took a look at a few weekly charts. On the USDCHF I noted the previous week’s BEOB (bearish outside bar), which you can see in the post-trade thumbnail to the right. Price action — check! Continue reading “Outside Bar Bears Modest Gain on USDCHF” A new online game and web marketing concept called FreePlayo has quietly launched in the beach resort destination of Pattaya, Thailand. Its founders are excited by the trends and would welcome approaches by serious investors with online start-up experience to help grow the business. Continue reading “Dotcom Start-Up Opportunity for Serious Investors” First demo trade this month. And a win!  GBPAUD. "Continue reading" for more. Played the bearish pin bar at the the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level. The pin wasn’t the textbook “hanging-out-in-space-on-a-swing-high-or-low” variety, but it was a trend continuation signal in my eyes having both touched the bearish trend line and rejected the 1.62 round number. (See thumbnail at right.) Importantly it was WITH the trend! (A few losing trades logged here were not, including the most recent debacle on thise very same currency pair. Go figure.) Continue reading “Trend Continuation Pin Bar on GBPAUD Reaps Pips” It’s been a while since I’ve actively demo traded.  GBPCAD. 'Continue reading' to see the result. This post is all about two failures I’ve been pretending to ignore since the end of September. The first I would put down as a c’est la vie philosophical moment, the other a bloody fool infraction. First the unlucky one: On September 29 I saw a nice looking pin bar on the GBPCAD (see thumbnail at right). Simple set up: Bearish pin bar, in line with the bearish longer term weekly and monthly trends, with a tail dangling up into plenty of space. The pin had rejected a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1.63 round number. Pretty good I thought. Placed a sell order about 10 pips below the low of the pin bar and a stop about 10 pip above the tail. Targeted the recent (bullish) daily trend line, which roughly coincided with the Fib 50. Might have pulled stop to breakeven at 1.62 and perhaps taken profit on half my position at 1.61. Continue reading “One Stupid + One Unfortunate = Two Sad Forex Trades” Success!  'Continue reading' to see what happened Entered long on AUDCAD on a retrace of the bullish outside bar/candle (BUOB) of Tuesday, September 14. But I did not enter on Wednesday, rather I entered on Thursday after price action tested and rejected both the 0.96 “big round number” and the bullish trend line. Snapped the thumbnail on right the next day (Friday). Set stop loss originally ten pips below the BUOB. And moved it up as the trade progressed. Set a modest first profit target for half my position based on a 61.8 Fibonacci enhancement level, which was taken out on Friday. Let the rest of my position run. See the full graph below to see what happened! Continue reading “Pleasing Execution, Result on AUDCAD Long Trade” |
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