As at March 30, only three months since the site went live, FreePlayo [...]]]> A new online game and web marketing concept called FreePlayo has quietly launched in the beach resort destination of Pattaya, Thailand. Its founders are excited by the trends and would welcome approaches by serious investors with online start-up experience to help grow the business.

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For example, there is great potential to grow the concept quickly via franchisees; local entrepreneurs spearheading localised iterations of FreePlayo.  The patent-pending technology can also be customised and re-skinned for licensing to third parties, such as multi-brand conglomerates, and can even be incorporated into their pre-existing loyalty or rewards programs.

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FreePlayo welcomes your expression of interest. Email info@FreePlayo.com.

Disclosure: The author of this blog post (and owner of The Money Blog Post) is a co-founder of FreePlayo.

GBPAUD. "Continue reading" for more.

Played the bearish pin bar at the the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level.

The pin wasn’t the textbook “hanging-out-in-space-on-a-swing-high-or-low” variety, but it was a trend continuation signal in my eyes having both touched the bearish trend line and rejected the 1.62 round number. (See thumbnail at right.)

Importantly it was WITH the [...]]]> First demo trade this month. And a win!

GBPAUD. "Continue reading" for more.

Played the bearish pin bar at the the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level.

The pin wasn’t the textbook “hanging-out-in-space-on-a-swing-high-or-low” variety, but it was a trend continuation signal in my eyes having both touched the bearish trend line and rejected the 1.62 round number. (See thumbnail at right.)

Importantly it was WITH the trend! 

(A few losing trades logged here were not, including the most recent debacle on thise very same currency pair. Go figure.)

My only major concern was the whole setup’s proximity to the historical low 1.60-ish area, hence the pin bar retracement entry.

I worked out my position size based on the relatively tight stop afforded by the retracement entry (even so, I allowed a generous stop loss buffer above the high of the pin) and my “maximum-2%-of-account-per-trade” rule, and placed three sell orders of roughly equal size.

Price was already floating around the retracement level when I noticed the set-up, hence the slightly staggered green sell order lines on the thumbnail.

Placed take profit target for one order at 1.61 for a 72-pip gain.

Moved stops on the two remaining orders to better than break even and set a profit target for a second order at 1.60 for a 176-pip gain.

Then as I was playing around with trailing stops for the third order I accidentally closed the trade at a little below 1.60 (1.5993) for a 185-pip gain.

A little annoyed about that as price has continued down to test historical lows as I expected it would.

But it’s a win! The average gain for the trade was 168 pips, which goes into the pips gained column!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

GBPAUD. Trend continuation setup. Pin bar off trendline (since redrawn) and round number 1.62.

GBPCAD. 'Continue reading' to see the result.

This post is all about two failures I’ve been pretending to ignore since the end of September. 

The first I would put down as a c’est la vie philosophical moment, the other a bloody fool infraction.

First the unlucky one: On September 29 I saw [...]]]> It’s been a while since I’ve actively demo traded. 

GBPCAD. 'Continue reading' to see the result.

This post is all about two failures I’ve been pretending to ignore since the end of September. 

The first I would put down as a c’est la vie philosophical moment, the other a bloody fool infraction.

First the unlucky one: On September 29 I saw a nice looking pin bar on the GBPCAD (see thumbnail at right).

Simple set up: Bearish pin bar, in line with the bearish longer term weekly and monthly trends, with a tail dangling up into plenty of space. The pin had rejected a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1.63 round number.

Pretty good I thought. Placed a sell order about 10 pips below the low of the pin bar and a stop about 10 pip above the tail.

Targeted the recent (bullish) daily trend line, which roughly coincided with the  Fib 50. Might have pulled stop to breakeven at 1.62 and perhaps taken profit on half my position at 1.61.

My best laid plans didn’t come to pass. 

As can be seen on the full-size chart, the pair did end up where I envisioned it, but not before taking out my stop on the way to creating a large bearish outside bar (engulfing candle) on September 30.

Another loss to chalk up then, and another 158 pips down.

GBPCAD. The bearish outside bar would have been better. Tough luck.

CONTEXT PLEASE!

The damn fool trade can only be put down to a rush of blood to the head.

See the thumb at left. Nice looking pin bar on the GBPAUD, right? In isolation, sure. Actually it was against the dominant bearish trend.

Suffice to say I should have passed it up as soon as looked at it.

What I did do was set a buy a few pips above and a stop a few pips below.

End result: -186 pips down and another black mark in the loss column.

Still got a lot of work to do before risking real money in this game.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

'Continue reading' to see what happened

Entered long on AUDCAD on a retrace of the bullish outside bar/candle (BUOB) of Tuesday, September 14.

But I did not enter on Wednesday, rather I entered on Thursday after price action tested and rejected both the 0.96 “big round number” and the bullish trend line.

Snapped the thumbnail on right the [...]]]> Success!

'Continue reading' to see what happened

Entered long on AUDCAD on a retrace of the bullish outside bar/candle (BUOB) of Tuesday, September 14.

But I did not enter on Wednesday, rather I entered on Thursday after price action tested and rejected both the 0.96 “big round number” and the bullish trend line.

Snapped the thumbnail on right the next day (Friday).

Set stop loss originally ten pips below the BUOB. And moved it up as the trade progressed.

Set a modest first profit target for half my position based on a 61.8 Fibonacci enhancement level, which was taken out on Friday.

Let the rest of my position run. See the full graph below to see what happened!

Throughout the trade, whenever I could spare a minute or two, I let price action on shorter timeframes guide me. As a result I moved the stop up a few times during the course of the trade as likely support/resistance levels (and nice round numbers) were exceeded and retested.

Similarly I let price action suggest to me a likely ceiling on the move and thus set a second target price earlier today (Tuesday, September 21) at a level (0.9752) that I felt would be retested. This was taken out while I was out enjoying a luncheon meeting.

So I’m definitely pleased with this trade. Price action, patience, confluence, and intra-trade management all came together nicely for a decent virtual profit: Half the position yielded 47 pips in profit; the other half yielded 135 pips.

An average of 91 pips.

Not too shabby for a newbie. And it helps the scoreboard!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

A successful AUDCAD long trade, both in execution and in result. Gotta be happy with that!

'Continue reading' for full chart result

I scoped a big double high low close (DHLC) on the NZDUSD, September 14.

The double highs, within a couple of pips of each other, were at a price that had met significant [...]]]> I’m a little late posting this up. This is my first demo trade entered on a 240-minute (four-hour) chart.

'Continue reading' for full chart result

I scoped a big double high low close (DHLC) on the NZDUSD, September 14.

The double highs, within a couple of pips of each other, were at a price that had met significant resistance back in early August.

Per the thumbnail on right, I placed a sell order (green line) some 10 pips below the low of the bearish candle and set a wide open stop (red line)  some ten pips above the high.

The order was met.

I was planning to move the stop to break-even once price hit the 23.6 Fib level, but never got the chance!

As this was my first (demo) trade entered on a time-frame lower than daily, I kept looking at it throughout the day.

I noticed bullish price action on the hourly and 30-minute charts so I decided to bail.

I’m glad I did! Check out the H4 chart below. The original bearish bar is highlighted. Take a look at the reversal!

So I got out at break-even, which goes into the “win” column, but doesn’t budge my pip deficit!

Fortunately, I’ve just booked partial profit on an AUDCAD long trade, with a good portion of that still running. Will post it here when it’s fully resolved.

Also, check out that J16 thread I mentioned in my last post to find out what DHLC is!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

Bailed on a kiwi/dollar short trade. It's a good thing I did!

I haven’t quit. But neither have I been demo trading.

I’m trying to be more picky in the setups I take. And I realise I have much to learn about risk and money management.

On both counts the James16 Chart Thread at Forex Factory is [...]]]> Here’s a short, long over-due update for the purposes of my forex trading journal:

I haven’t quit. But neither have I been demo trading.

I’m trying to be more picky in the setups I take. And I realise I have much to learn about risk and money management.

On both counts the James16 Chart Thread at Forex Factory is informative. And there are some free videos at the James16 Group website, which offer both a reality check and a guiding light.

James16, a Texan (I think), offers up his price action trading method. From what I can tell it is similar to Nial Fuller’s (who was mentioned in my original post).

However, James16 has a different take on entry strategies and intra-trade management, which appeals to my more conservative instincts.

I am neither a paid up member of James16′s private forum nor Nial Fuller’s training course, nor do I have any vested interest in mentioning either of them here.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

These were the “other two” demo trades referred to in my previous post that I entered into last Monday, August 16, and which I expected would take out my “set and forget” stop loss levels early this week.

The [...]]]> All I have to do is look at the graphs to know what I did wrong on both these trades.

These were the “other two” demo trades referred to in my previous post that I entered into last Monday, August 16, and which I expected would take out my “set and forget” stop loss levels early this week.

The first to resolve itself, a misguided EURUSD long trade, took out the stop yesterday.

Clearly there was no obvious price action signal when I entered the trade, there was no support level confluence apart from a dodgy young trend line, AND I bet against the 90-day simple moving average.

Plan ignored. Scoreboard punished by 160 pips.

*sigh*

The second trade took out the stop today. It was another pathetic long attempt, this time on the GBPUSD.

Again, no clear price action signal. Again, no support aside from a dodgy trend line. And while the 90-day SMA showed a slight upward bias, there were definitely not enough ticks to justify this hasty and amateurish move.

Plan ignored. Scoreboard taken for 172 pips.

*sigh*

As mentioned in my previous two posts, a more proactive approach to setting breakeven and trailing stops, which is provided for in my current trading plan, may have saved a few pips. But that’s for future trades assuming I can HONOUR the plan!

I currently have no open trades, although I do have my eye on a couple of pairs. Time to be patient. Time to be disciplined. The scoreboard needs me!

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

To see what happened, 'continue reading'

I referred to it in my last post (August 20). It’s the trade for which I moved the stop loss (red tag) from a point above the trend line (right thumbnail) to a touch below entry (6 pips to [...]]]> The USDCAD short trade I entered into on Friday the 13^th has resolved itself.

To see what happened, 'continue reading'

I referred to it in my last post (August 20). It’s the trade for which I moved the stop loss (red tag) from a point above the trend line (right thumbnail) to a touch below entry (6 pips to be precise; larger chart below).

More proactive intra-trade management would have resulted in a decent gain on this trade. There were opportunities on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, when I checked progress, to set a trailing stop. This would have taken me out with a positive pip gain and restored some respectability to my scorecard (right column).

As it is, breakeven or better counts as a “win”.

Another thing for me to take note of when setting targets and managing open trades is Fibonacci, but I need to read up on it.

Two other trades referred to in my last post that I entered into on Monday, are on their way to possibly taking out their original stop loss levels early next week.

As they were hovering at or below breakeven on Friday I made the determination to see how they play out, rather than move the stops. They will likely do further damage to my scorecard.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

Blue tag - entry; red tag - stop loss; green tag - take profit target. A trailing stop may have dragged in pips.

'Continue reading' to see what happened

It was definitely a newbie effort and one that I will learn from (if I haven’t already).

I entered a GBPCHF long trade (blue tag) on Wednesday August 18, thinking that Tuesday’s [...]]]> As my virtual account says “ouch” after a 186-pip loss, I’m scratching my head wondering why I was so impulsive.

'Continue reading' to see what happened

It was definitely a newbie effort and one that I will learn from (if I haven’t already).

I entered a GBPCHF long trade (blue tag) on Wednesday August 18, thinking that Tuesday’s test and rejection of a minor (and not particularly well established) resistance level was proof enough of a bounce back to higher levels in this “range-bound” market.

The small image at right was snapped yesterday, after price action had nearly stopped me out. But it had retraced back into green territory, which gave me renewed confidence.

Sods law. It tumbled back down overnight to take out my original wide stop. (See the result in the larger chart below.)

I now note that there is bearishness in this supposedly “range-bound” market. Had I taken more time to analyse the chart, I would have passed on this trade.

The trend is my friend. And I snubbed it.

So what have I learned?

1. Patience is priceless: It’s better to wait for more evidence and conduct more thorough analysis with reference to my PLAN(!) than it is to rush in like a bull in a china shop.
2. Breakeven is beautiful: Setting a stop at breakeven as early as possible in a trade will minimise losses while keeping the door open to profit on unambiguous runners.

I’m also considering incorporating trailing stops into my plan, but I need to read up on that.

So in the space of one bad result I’ve gone from worrying about setting stops too tight, to rolling out breakeven stops at the earliest possible opportunity!

I have got three other demo trades open on different pairs currently — all involving USD, as it happens. One of the positions was entered into last Friday, the 13^th, and the other two on Monday.

I have moved the stop to breakeven on the Friday trade. The other two are hovering at or below breakeven, so I may just let them do what they will. If they move into profit – and I’m watching – I’ll lock in breakeven on them as well.

By the way, my policy here is to only write up trades when the results are in. (Note to self: Take screenshots as soon as possible after making trades in order to keep a better record of what candles look like when I pull the trigger.)

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

All I see now is a bearish trend ... What was I thinking? Answer: I wasn't.

Continue reading for chart of outcome

The thumbnail on right was captured some time after I entered the trade, at the end of [...]]]> I entered a long AUDUSD forex demo trade at market price (0.8969; blue tag) on Friday, August 13, after noting that the Thursday candlestick looked “pin-like” after brushing a “support level” during the day.

Continue reading for chart of outcome

The thumbnail on right was captured some time after I entered the trade, at the end of my work day here in Bangkok.

Unfortunately, things didn’t change much overnight.

The candlestick at Friday’s New York close looked very similar, with no dangling tail. It was clear that my stop loss (red tag) level might be tested come Monday.

Sure enough, it was taken out (see result chart below).

So, what went wrong? What can I learn from this trade?

1. The pin-like bar referred to above wasn’t at all convincing. Not a very long tail and nothing really to compare it to. And it only touched the “support” rather than make a foray beyond it.
2. In any case, the support level was not properly established – had no real precedent – and thus should have ruled out the trade. I should have waited for further rejections, such as what happened on Monday, as further evidence of an imminent resumption of the recent bullish trend.
3. On a dodgy setup like that, it’s a relief that the stop loss was where it was. On a more confidence-inspiring setup the stop loss may have been too tight. My profit target of plus 218 pips (green tag) would have justified a more liberal stop of about -100 pips or so to at least offer the minimum reward/risk ratio of  2:1.
4. I may have been able to close the trade on Monday morning for a smaller loss after seeing the Friday close, and probably would have looked to do that if trading for real. However, as I’m testing a set-and-forget trading plan based on daily charts, that wasn’t an option.

Three demo trades in with one win and two losses, but still marginally ahead on pips.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this post or anywhere on this website should be construed as “advice” in any legal sense of the word. (I am not “qualified”!) You make your own decisions.

Mauled on Monday: Another dodgy forex setup with an "instructional" outcome. You've got to be positive about these things!